Outlook Report: Cultured Dairy
The protein power of cottage cheese, yogurt fuels Olympic and FIFA World Cup athletes
Refrigerated yogurt, RTD yogurt generate double-digit growth.
The 2026 Winter Olympics, officially the XXV Winter Olympic Games, took place Feb. 6-22, across Lombardy and Northeast Italy. Another significant global event, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, featuring 48 teams, is being hosted across 16 cities and stadiums in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Iconic food and beverage sponsors — like Coca-Cola, Budweiser (Anheuser-Busch) and McDonald’s — are being joined by Mengniu Dairy and Unilever in marketing and showcasing their brands during premier, worldwide sporting events.
In a statement, Mengniu Group CEO and Executive Director Jeffrey Lu remarked: “Alongside FIFA, Mengniu will always uphold its original vision of ‘a little bit of nutrition to bloom every life’ by sowing football dreams with high-quality dairy products, nurturing people’s love for a healthy lifestyle and bringing more health and happiness to consumers on and off the pitch.”
When it comes to powering up their game or recovering afterwards, athletes and non-athletes inevitably turn to the protein found in nutritious, fermented cultured dairy products like cottage cheese, Greek yogurt, yogurt, ready-to-drink (RTD) yogurt and kefir.
A plant-based milk, Silk is high in protein and low in sugar. Photo courtesy of Silk
A rich source of protein, low-fat cottage cheese packs 25 grams of protein per cup; plain, whole-milk Greek yogurt has 23 grams of protein; kefir contains eight to 12 grams of protein per cup; while yogurt boasts 12 grams.
Since protein-packed products are in high demand, dollar sales for virtually every cultured dairy category — with the exception of a 2% decline in cream cheese — are soaring in multi-outlets and convenience stores for the 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2025, versus a year ago, states John Crawford, principal for Client Insights-Dairy at Circana.
The Chicago-based market research firm reports that dollar sales climbed for cottage cheese (+19.7%), yogurt (+13.8%), sour cream (+2.7%), refrigerated dips (+3.8%) and kefir (+30.3%). Firmly ensconced in the billion-dollar sales club, yogurt generated $12.8 billion in sales, cream cheese, $2.9 billion, cottage cheese, $2 billion and sour cream, $1.9 billion. Albeit from a smaller base, kefir grew to $252 million for the 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2025, and at 30% year-over-year growth looks to continue its subcategory dominance.
Made with real fruit, siggi's skyr contains 10g of protein. Photo courtesy of Siggi's
Lifeway Foods, a kefir company with nearly $187 million in sales, is parlaying its success in the RTD market into other categories. The Morton Grove, Ill.-based company will soon debut a Probiotic Kefir Butter, a hand-churned, spreadable cultured European style butter in three flavors: Unsalted, Sea Salt and Honey Butter. (To learn more about Lifeway Foods, check out Dairy Foods’ 2025 Processor of the Year article).
New flavors, high protein, low sugar
Both refrigerated yogurt and RTD yogurt continue to capture share of stomach. For the 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2025, Circana data reports refrigerated yogurt grew 12.2% to $11 billion in sales, while refrigerated yogurt drinks generated growth of 24.4% and sales of $1.8 billion.
Crawford notes that double-digit growth in yogurt and cottage cheese have similar drivers.
Through its sponsorship of FIFA, Mengniu Dairy is creating brand awareness of its dairy products. Photo courtesy of Mengniu Dairy
“Both are driven by consumer interest in high protein and low sugar options. Cottage cheese fits both of these trends today,” Crawford explains. “Cottage cheese’s rebirth began back in spring of 2023 when it went viral on TikTok. The viral videos shared new use occasions, including use in casseroles, smoothies, ice cream and hiding in dishes (bringing protein to kids). It gave younger consumers ideas on how to use this high-protein, low-sugar powerhouse in their kitchens. Since spring of 2023, cottage cheese has experienced consistent double-digit growth.”
(Click to enlarge) Photo courtesy of Women's Health.
Crawford highlights that yogurt growth also is being driven by high protein and low sugar products, citing Oikos Triple Zero and Oikos Pro as examples. “Both spoonable yogurt and yogurt drinks are seeing strong growth with the latter +24.4% in dollars and +15.6 in volume in 2025 vs. 2024,” he says.
Chicago-based Mintel’s October 2025 report, “Yogurt & Yogurt Drinks, US 2025,” is in the same ballpark, with an overall estimated value of $14.1 billion, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% from 2024-2025. Looking to the future, the report forecasts growth of 41% and revenue of $19.8 billion for yogurt and yogurt drinks by 2030.
The report highlights the following:
- New flavors and textures are shaping the market. Younger consumers are redefining yogurt consumption. Less established yogurts in the U.S. market, like French and Australian, are gaining traction due to the unique texture, innovation and sweet flavors, offering a fresh alternative to more established varieties.
- Protein proves paramount. Protein-packed products have surged across food and drink categories, and yogurt is no exception. Protein-rich options are the top priorities for buyers, with yogurt drinks experiencing a surge in demand thanks to new high-protein formulations that cater to health-conscious, active lifestyles.
- A bright future for yogurt. With its inherent health benefits and versatility, yogurt is perfectly aligned with the growing focus on wellness and convenience. As consumers increasingly seek on-the-go solutions, yogurt’s adaptability and nutrient density positions it as a high-growth category poised for long-term success.
Impact of inflation on sales
While it’s difficult to predict the future, Crawford is cautiously optimistic.
“I expect inflation will continue to pinch consumers in 2026. However, consumers are showing resilience in purchasing value-added foods with enhanced nutritional density,” he relays. “Dairy is very much on-trend with protein and calcium along with some probiotics, some lactose-free, some low sugar, some organic and some extended shelf-life products that will continue to be winning propositions with consumers.”
This year, clean-label, organic, reduced or no sugar, and functional benefits will continue to influence consumers’ buying decisions. Additionally, lactose-free, pre/probiotics and ultra-high temperature (UHT) will remain in demand, Crawford maintains.
Increasingly, fiber will be the newest go-to ingredient in 2026, he suggests.
When asked which brands are innovating in the cultured dairy space, Crawford responds: “I still say fairlife has the quadfecta with higher protein, lower sugar, lactose-free and extended shelf life. Other brands that are also winning are Chobani, Oikos, Lactaid, JonnyPops, Siggi’s, Stonyfield Organic, Daisy, Good Culture and look for :ratio’s new offering with high fiber.”
Photo courtesy of Too Good & Co.
To leverage growth and stand out from a sea of competitors, Crawford recommends dairy processors “continue to innovate around the five key trends: lactose-free, high protein, low sugar, pre/probiotics and UHT. And add a sixth to the mix with added/high fiber.”
He also suggests consistently communicating the “inherent benefits of dairy” to consumers, including calcium, vitamins, protein and clean label.
“The outlook is still good for cultured dairy in 2026,” Crawford concludes. “Expect cottage cheese and yogurt to cool a bit wrapping on high growth last year. I continue to expect convenient products like drinkable yogurt and kefir to thrive.”
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