Recent data show a picture not quite as bleak, as whole-milk unit sales actually increased slightly. Could this signal some hope on the horizon?

In the milk category, dollar sales were up 3.7% to $18.1 billion, but units dropped 1.9% to 5.8 billion, in the 52 weeks ended Nov. 30, 2014, according to Information Resources Inc. (IRI), Chicago.

IRI tracks the following segments in the fluid milk category:

• Refrigerated skim/low-fat milk ($10.5 billion, units down 5.2%)
• Refrigerated whole milk ($4.8 billion, units up 1.3%)
• Refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk ($1.3 billion; units down 0.9%)

The whole-milk segment showed promise with dollar sales up 7.3% to $4.8 billion and units increased 1.3% to 1.4 billion. Private label more than dominated this segment with $2.6 billion sales. Dollar sales were up 8.7% and units improved 2.3% to 835.8 million. Three companies among the top 10 stood out with significant unit increases: Oak Farms Dairy saw dollar sales rise 23% and units jump 19.3%; Sales went up 18.1% and units increased 14% for Horizon Organic (Whitewave Foods Co.); and Prairie Farms Dairy’s sales improved 19.9%, while units jumped 13.1%. Others struggled — Borden Dairy’s sales decreased 10.6% and units dropped 15.4%; Deans’ Land O’ Lakes saw dollar sales down 4% and units fell 11.6%.

The skinny on low-fat milk

In the skim/low-fat milk segment, sales were not as hopeful. Dollar sales were nearly frozen, up 0.6% to $10.5 billion, and units fell 5.2% to 3.3 billion. Two companies among the top 10 saw sales up — Hiland Dairy’s sales improved 21.9% and units were up 14.4%; and sales and units increased for Oak Farms Dairy, 18% and 14.2%, respectively. Dean’s regular and Land O’ Lakes brand took a hit in sales — both dropped, 3.5% and 7.2%, respectively, and units fell, 9.2% and 13.7%, respectively. Also seeing numbers tumble was HP Hood; its sales fell 2.4% and units dropped 5.7%. Organic Valley’s sales improved slightly, 4.3%, while units barely moved, up 0.07%.

Despite recent innovation with flavors and seasonal offerings, the flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk segment showed little improvement. Dollar sales did go up 3.4% to $1.3 billion, but units barely moved, down 0.9% to 624.3 million.

 A few standouts did see significant increases. Dollar sales for Country Fresh TruMoo (Dean Foods) skyrocketed 108.6%, and units increased 98.8%. Dean’s Country Fresh also saw sales up 42.3% and units jumped 35.7%. Hiland Dairy’s sales improved 25.5%, and units were up 20.2%. Coming in just after private label ($315.9 million) in overall sales was TruMoo (Dean Foods) with $150.5 million — dollar sales increased 14.3% and units were up 8.9%. Sales and units dropped for Borden, 5.8% and 13.2%, respectively.