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In James Bond 007 movies, the music openings dramatically set the tone of each spy thriller. From eclectic artists like Paul McCartney, “Live and Let Die,” to Sheena Easton, “For Your Eyes Only,” to Billie Eilish, “No Time to Die,” the vocals powerfully drive home the haunting sentiments behind the accompanying Bond film. British singer-songwriter Adele’s “Skyfall,” not only won “Best Original Song” at the 2012 Academy Awards but spent 32 weeks on the Billboard Top 100.

Also “winning” and demonstrating staying power in the ice cream category is the $8.9 frozen novelties category, which for the 52 weeks ending Sept. 7 not only generated year-over-year (YoY) growth of 2.5%, but outpaced the ice cream/sherbert category, which “lapped up” dollar sales of $8.6 billion, according to data from Chicago-based market research firm Circana.

The frozen novelties category includes frozen novelties ($8.4 billion, 3% growth), frozen ice cream/ice milk desserts ($344 million, -0.1%) and ice pop desserts ($211 million, -12.7%).

Two out of four of the segments in the ice cream/sherbert category generated YoY growth: ice milk/frozen dairy desserts, with a double-digit climb of 31.6% and sales of $640 million; and sherbet/sorbet/ices had 8.2% growth and dollar sales of $293 million. With a slight 1.3% decline, ice cream generated $7.4 billion in sales, while frozen yogurt/tofu had a 5.3% “sky fall” and $302 million in sales.

Melissa Altobelli, Circana’s senior vice president of Client Insights, notes that ice cream — which must contain at least 10% milkfat to achieve its creamy, dreamy texture — is more expensive to make and buy versus frozen novelties.

Content-wise, frozen dairy desserts contain less than 10% milk fat and have more air incorporated, which yields a lighter, airy texture.

“Ice Cream Dollar sales of almost $8.6B in MULO+ Convenience for 52 weeks ending Sept. 7 have grown over $60 million dollars,” Altobelli explains. “However, units are flat and volume is down due to consumers purchasing smaller sizes. Frozen Novelties Dollar sales of $6.4B has grown at a slightly higher rate than Ice Cream. However, units and volume are also down.”

Some of this, she attests, is due to the fact “there are slightly fewer households purchasing Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties over the past year.”

While only ice milk/non-dairy desserts are growing within ice cream at 31%, frozen dairy desserts are showing “strong growth” over the last three years with intros in soft serve and carb reduced varieties.

Premiumization, protein & product innovation

Carl Quash III, global insight manager at Chicago-based Euromonitor International, points out that premiumization is driving growth in ice cream.

“From 2021 to 2024, global category unit prices have risen 12 percentage points, and we've also seen a number of new innovations accompany,” he explains. “Natural claims, special edition products, and 'good source of' have seen growth from Passport's Innovation Tracker — all Passport's Innovation Tracker — all up over 25% in 2024 vs 2023.

“This is definitely a key strategy for market leader Unilever (soon to be The Magnum Ice Cream Co. [TMICC]) as well as small brands,” he continues. “Our product innovation tracker has picked up ice creams that are using whipped Greek yogurt, infused with probiotics, and made with locally sourced or sustainably certified ingredients.”

In another innovation, Unilever launched a new brand, Hydro:ICE. a premium water ice cream that glows in the dark and has added micronutrients for enhanced hydration in hotter climates, Quash says.

“While it is a water ice cream, it's not hard to imagine the potential for the company to similarly enhance its dairy offerings,” he adds. “The Yasso frozen yogurt ice cream brand is perfectly fit for this type of health upgrade.”

While its newest product is not a water ice cream, Yasso Frozen Green Yogurt, a brand of The Magnum Ice Cream Co., unveiled five new flavors of its spoonable frozen yogurt with 18 to 19 grams of protein per 14-ounce, 400-calorie pint: Mint Chocolate Chip, Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough, Fudge Brownie, Cookies 'n Cream and Coffee Chip.

Petaluma, Calif.-based Alec's Ice Cream, an A2 regenerative organic ice cream brand, closed an $11 million Series A funding to support the company’s mission to assist farmers in building regenerative supply chains and accelerate growth through innovation, marketing, and team expansion, paving the way for a more sustainable food future.

Founded in 2020 by Alec Jaffe, the self-titled ice cream, in flavors like Peanut Butter Fudge Honeycomb, Palm Springs Banana Chocolate Date Shake and Tahitian Vanilla Bean, is expected to double its year-over-year sales as it now can be found in more than 3,000 retail locations nationwide.

Noting the appealing nature of indulgent ice cream, Circana is seeing more brands focus on health and wellness.

“We have noticed some brands focusing on protein, such as Protein Pints, which pack 30g of protein per container, and Smearcase, which is frozen cottage cheese. Smearcase focuses on lower fat and higher protein than traditional ice cream,” Altobelli says.

Euromonitor International’s Quash concurs that protein ice cream does fulfill a variety of consumer interests: being better for them, lower sugar, and are particularly interesting for dieting and health-conscious consumers, potentially even GLP-1 users.

Yet, the data analytics company is seeing key players like Ferrero's Halo Top invest more in the indulgence aspect of its brand with its U.S. launch of Mix-ins, emphasizing real fruit and bakery pieces to complement its calorie and good source of protein benefits.

“I'd say that consumers in developed markets are the ones most familiar with this concept of ice cream and high protein, but affordability is a challenge for them at the moment,” Quash explains. “That and there are a number of other categories where protein is prioritized really puts a strain on protein ice cream's growth.”

As higher protein and innovation entices consumers, declines are being experienced in both plant-based ice cream and frozen novelties along with private-label products, Altobelli says.

“In both categories, plant-based items have lost overall distribution and items,” she explains. “Unlike many other dairy categories, private label has declined in units for both ice cream and frozen novelties. Consumers most often purchase ice cream/frozen novelties as a treat, so are likely spending the extra for a premium brand/experience versus private label.”

Scooping up bold flavors

Although Vanilla is the No. 1 flavor in Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties, it also represents the greatest loss in units, according to Altobelli.

“Chocolate, Cookies & Cream, Rocky Road, Butter Pecan, Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough and Strawberry all made it in the Top 10 flavors for Ice Cream. There has been a trend for niche brands to launch unique flavors,” she says.

Quash agrees that Chocolate and Vanilla are always going to thrive along with bakery-inspired flavors like Cookies & Cream and Cookie Dough. “Fruit flavors do well in Asia. And cultural flavors are making a more expansive entrance in retail cabinets and admired by the youth (e.g., Dubai style ice cream, matcha ice cream),” he adds.

New line extensions and items that add excitement with indulgent mix-ins and bold flavors are finding success. “Examples include Edy's Extra Collection (more stuff) and Breyers S’mores Campfire Collection. In the last six months or so, we have also seen Turkey Hill Late Night (super indulgent flavors like Ultimate Cookie Overload) and Halo Top Mix Ins sub brands emerge,” Altobelli states.

Euromonitor International’s Quash also notes the usage of protein, bakery-inspired line extensions and occasion expansions as key strategies for ice cream processors.

“There are a lot of promotions at the moment in both format innovations and marketing to position ice creams as a dessert occasion. This was the intent of Unilever's Talenti brand,” Quash notes. “It launched a bakery subline for its Talenti Layers desert line that includes layers of gelato and bakery pieces. The launch was meant to uptake dessert occasions beyond just ice cream, and the line may expand the Bakery Collection in 2026.

“Ice cream bonbons are gaining traction in the industry. These are grabbable, poppable, and ultimately more snackable, bite-sized ice creams,” he continues. “This space has been receiving a lot of investment and growing competition lately; even private-label launches. There are now even seasonal (e.g., fall flavored) and plant-based varieties.”

To leverage growth and stand out from a sea of competitors, Altobelli suggests ice cream processors consider the following:

• Ensure they have a smaller sized offering as smaller sizes are growing, and consumers are looking for affordable indulgences
• Unique and fun flavor experiences
• Consider categories that aren't ice cream and how those can be leveraged. For example, Ferrero launched Trolli Gummi Pops, which blends the Trolli gummy candy and an ice pop. Another example, Gold West Food Group launched cereal inspired ice cream pints such as Apple Jacks and Fruit Loops.

In terms of future innovation, 4D style is growing its presence in ice cream. “Chinese manufacturers are doing this really well — particularly Beijing Youshare Food and Seahonesty Tech, which launched the viral mango ice cream on TikTok,” Quash says. “These future ice creams are replicating whole fruits and other foods and offering a premium, highly sensorial eating experience. It will be interesting to see how this 4D ice cream trend manifests across regions.”

He points out that ice cream is on track to surpass $90B in sales this year and grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 5% into 2030, when it is expected to cross the $100B threshold in sales.

“The Magnum Ice Cream Co. will be key to watch given their global category leadership,” Quash concludes. “Private label and small brand ice creams will also be interesting to keep an eye on as they will attract the attention of financial drained consumers and potentially scalable needs.”