On May 31, Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. cheese, and then on June 16, China announced retaliatory tariffs against most U.S. dairy products.
During June, Class III milk futures covering the second half of 2018 fell by more than $1.00/hundredweight (cwt), while Class IV milk futures fell by more than $1.50/cwt. Casual observers of the market, and even some who are more than casual observers, were attributing the price drop to the announced retaliatory tariffs. Was that a justified belief or just an opinion?