When it comes to current supply and demand for pure vanilla extract, the situation is this. Supplies are down this year, but because manufacturers reformulated products last year in response to the anticipated shortage brought on by Hurricane Hudah in 2000, global demand is actually down about 20%, which has resulted in supplies meeting demands, and then some.
However, vanilla extract manufacturers are not expecting demand for pure vanilla to decrease much more, yet they are expecting supply to be significantly down in 2004 as a result of the 2003 crop flowering problems. The 2003 crop is expected to be down 40-75%.